The Business News Week Ahead

The week will be dominated by China, beginning Monday with merchandise trade followed on Thursday by the whole slate: retail sales, industrial production and GDP. Expectations for the run point to tangible but nevertheless limited improvement for the Chinese economy. US data will also be very heavy including industrial production on Wednesday, where June's consensus is for a second month of strong recovery, and retail sales on Thursday where expectations are also upbeat. Not favorable at all, however, are expectations for initial US jobless claims on Thursday with Econoday's consensus, not only well above 1 million, but also calling for the first rise since the beginning of the crisis. Other data to watch will be monthly GDP from the UK where an actual gain is expected, Germany's ZEW Survey also on Tuesday where mixed results are seen, Australian unemployment on Thursday where improvement is the call, as well as consumer prices from the US and the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday with traction, at least overall for the US, expected.