Consumers expectations tick up in May, New York Fed survey shows

Like the jobs report on Friday, the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows signs of improvement vs. April but is still a long way off from attaining pre-COVID-19 levels.

Consumers are relatively more optimistic about earnings growth, finding a job, and job loss expectations, which all improved slightly.

 

Mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months declined to 18.7% in May vs. 20.9% in April; compares with 12-month trailing average of 15.2%.

 

Expected income and spending growth, as well as the probability of missing a future minimum debt payment, also improved.

However, perceived and expected availability of credit worsened; perceptions of credit access compared with a year ago fell for the third straight month — with 49.6% of respondents reporting credit is harder to get than a year earlier vs. 48.0% in April and 32.1% in March.

Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year horizon and remained stable at the three-year horizon.