tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18429743193756992612024-02-19T19:01:31.274-07:00CP Capital Solutions / CP Real Estate Funding Solutions / CP Construction Funding SolutionsBusiness Financing, Real Estate Financing, Micro-Business Loans, Personal Loans, Agriculture Financing, Land Loans, End Loans, Hard Money, Merchant Financing, Cash Flow Financing, Note Buyers. Commercial and Residential Construction Financing.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7092125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-52236669665285438632021-12-23T10:48:00.001-07:002021-12-23T10:48:27.202-07:00Consumer confidence: Omicron plays holiday Grinch<p>Although consumers were slightly more optimistic about economic
conditions in the December survey, nearly all the data were collected
prior to the rapid spread of Omicron in the U.S., according to the
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.</p>
<p>While it is likely that confidence will decline in the month ahead,
it is simply too early to judge the eventual impact of Omicron on
prices, incomes and employment, said U-M economist <a href="https://www.src.isr.umich.edu/people/richard-curtin/">Richard Curtin</a>,
director of the surveys. The most positive change recorded in December
was that the gain was entirely due to rising optimism among households
in the bottom third of the income distribution.</p>
<p>Their renewed optimism was due to higher expected income gains during
2022, Curtin said. Those anticipated gains may be vulnerable to the
impact of the rapidly spreading Omicron variant on hours worked, he
said.</p>
<p>Moreover, inflation has already eroded living standards, with lower
income households suffering the biggest relative setbacks. Declining
inflation-adjusted incomes, lower savings balances and potential
post-holiday spending cutbacks are likely to slow the pace of growth in
the overall economy in the first half of 2022, according to Curtin.</p>
<p>“The best news was the anticipated growth in incomes among households
in the bottom third of the distribution,” he said. “It was due to a
5.9% boost in 2022 Social Security payments as well as higher expected
income gains among the youngest workers.</p>
<p>“Unfortunately, the extremely regressive nature of inflation has also
meant that even these gains will leave these households without
inflation-adjusted income gains. Moreover, Omicron is likely to continue
to put upward pressure on prices as well as weaken the pace of economic
growth. The Fed must rebalance policies to both reduce inflationary
pressures and to counter any overall weakness in the economy.”</p>
<h3>Larger income gains expected by bottom third</h3>
<p>Incomes among the bottom third were expected to rise by 2.8% in 2022,
up from 1.8% last December, and the highest level since 2.9% was
recorded in 1999. There have only been five surveys in the past half
century that income expectations among low-income households have
exceeded the December level.</p>
<p>The announced increase in Social Security payments of 5.9% in 2022
was partly responsible for the gain as well as the expected wage
increases among the youngest workers of 5.0%, Curtin said.
Unfortunately, he said, these gains will be offset by inflation.</p>
<h3>Inflation more serious than unemployment</h3>
<p>When asked whether inflation or unemployment was the more serious
problem facing the nation, three-quarters of all consumers picked
inflation. Just 15% of all consumers anticipated that their household’s
income would rise faster than inflation in the year-end survey. This was
the lowest figure recorded in eight years.</p>
<p>Complaints that rising prices had lowered their living standards were voiced by 27% of households, the highest in nine years.</p>
<h3>Consumer Sentiment Index</h3>
<p>The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.6 in the December 2021
survey, up slightly from last month’s 67.4, but substantially below last
year’s 80.7. The Expectations Index rose to 68.3, up from last month’s
63.5, and well below last year’s 74.6. The Current Conditions Index rose
to 74.2, up from last month’s 73.6, and significantly below last year’s
90.0.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-64060263713922492722021-12-23T10:47:00.000-07:002021-12-23T10:47:02.437-07:00New home sales jump 12.4% in November, highest in 7 months <p>Sales of new single-family homes rose 12.4% in November, the fastest
pace in seven months, as the housing industry continued to benefit from
low mortgage rates and strong demand.
</p><p>The November increase pushed the seasonally adjusted annual sales
pace to 744,000 last month, the best showing since reaching 796,000 in
April.</p>
<p>The median sales price of a new home sold in November hit $416,900, 14.1% higher than a year ago.</p>
<p>Demand has surged this year as many Americans cooped up by the pandemic seek out larger homes.</p>
<p>The sale of previously occupied homes rose for a third straight month
in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million units,
the fastest pace since January, according to a report this week from
the National Association of Realtors.</p><p>Extraordinarily low mortgage rates have intensified demand.
</p><p>Freddie Mac reported Thursday 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.05% this week, down from last week’s 3.12%.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates are likely to move higher next year as the Federal
Reserve phases out the monthly bond purchases it has been making since
the pandemic hit nearly two years ago. The Fed has already signaled that
it expects to start raising interest rates as early as next spring to
check sharply rising inflation.</p>
<p>But interest rate increases are expected to be modest and the shift
higher may actually intensify demand as Americans try to lock in rates
before they head even higher.</p><p>“Anticipation of higher mortgage rates as the Fed tapers should be
supportive of sales over coming months,” predicted Rubeela Farooqi,
chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.</p>
<p>For November, sales were up in every region of the country except the
Midwest, which saw a 25.4% drop. New home sales surged 53.2% in the
West and were up 15.6% in the Northeast and 2.7% in the South.</p><p> </p><p> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-70033790214591781422021-12-23T07:56:00.007-07:002021-12-23T07:56:51.360-07:00Personal Income and Outlays Increase<p><span class="clearfix" itemprop="articleBody"></span></p><p dir="auto">
<strong>Personal income</strong> increased $90.4 billion (0.4
percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). <strong>Disposable personal income</strong> (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4 percent) and <strong>personal consumption expenditures</strong> (PCE) increased $104.7 billion (0.6 percent).
</p>
<p dir="auto">
<strong>Real DPI</strong> decreased 0.2 percent in November and <strong>Real PCE</strong>
increased less than 0.1 percent; spending on services increased 0.5
percent and spending on goods decreased 0.8 percent (tables 5 and 7).
The <strong>PCE price index</strong> increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.5 percent.</p><p dir="auto"> <span class="clearfix" itemprop="articleBody">The estimate for November
personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic recovery
and government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Government social
benefits increased in November, reflecting an increase in the Provider
Relief Fund (extended by the American Rescue Plan) that was partly
offset by declines in many other pandemic-assistance programs. The full
economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the
personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally
embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. </span></p><p dir="auto"><span class="clearfix" itemprop="articleBody"><span class="clearfix" itemprop="articleBody"></span></span></p><p dir="auto">
The increase in personal income in November primarily reflected
increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits
(table 3). Within compensation, the increase reflected increases in both
private and government wages and salaries. Within government social
benefits, an increase in "other" benefits (notably, an increase in the
Provider Relief Fund to health care nonprofits) was partly offset by a
decrease in unemployment insurance.
</p>
<p dir="auto"> The $104.7 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in November
reflected an increase of $97.4 billion in spending for services and a
$7.4 billion increase in spending for goods (table 3). The increase in
services was widespread, led by housing and utilities. Within goods, an
increase in nondurable goods (mainly gasoline and other energy goods)
was partly offset by a decrease in durable goods (led by recreational
goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts). </p>
<p dir="auto">
<strong>Personal outlays</strong> increased $106.3 billion in November (table 3). <strong>Personal saving</strong> was $1.25 trillion in November and the <strong>personal saving rate</strong>-personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income-was 6.9 percent.
</p>
<p dir="auto">
The <strong>PCE price index</strong> for November increased 5.7
percent from one year ago, reflecting increases in both goods and
services (table 11). Energy prices increased 34.0 percent while food
prices increased 5.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price
index for November increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.
</p> <p></p><p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-26833850339204267482021-12-23T07:54:00.004-07:002021-12-23T07:54:24.738-07:00U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase More Than Forecast<p>Orders placed with U.S. factories for durable goods rose in November
by the most in six months, exceeding forecasts and pointing to steady
demand that will help drive production growth in early 2022.</p><p>Bookings
for all durable goods -- or items meant to last at least three years --
increased 2.5% from the prior month, partly reflecting a sharp rise in
commercial aircraft orders. </p><p>The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment
in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, fell 0.1%
after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in October, Commerce Department
figures showed Thursday.</p><p class="paywall">The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of
economists called for a 0.7% increase in core capital goods orders and a
1.8% rise in total durables bookings. </p><p class="paywall">Despite
the softer results in business equipment orders, the strength in prior
months illustrates a robust pattern of private investment aimed at
bolstering productivity and production capacity. Amid lean inventories,
near-record job vacancies and a challenging supply network, companies
are looking to enhance efficiency.</p><p class="paywall">Meantime, inflation-adjusted household spending
stagnated in November as the fastest price gains in nearly four decades
eroded purchasing power. Purchases of goods and services, after
adjusting for higher prices, were little changed following a 0.7% gain
in October, separate Commerce Department figures showed Thursday. </p><p class="paywall" data-tout-type="story"></p><p class="paywall">The
durables data showed bookings for commercial aircraft increased 34.1%.
Boeing Co. reported 109 orders in November, up from 10 a month earlier.
The government data on aircraft orders don’t always align exactly with
the corporate figures.</p>
<aside class="left-rail-newsletter paywall"></aside><p class="paywall">Orders for motor vehicles rose 1%. Durable goods orders excluding transportation equipment increased 0.8%.</p><p class="paywall">Outside of the more volatile transportation
categories, the report was mixed. Bookings for metals and communications
equipment increased, while those for machinery, electrical equipment
and computers eased.</p><p class="paywall">Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, a measure of backlogs, rose 0.7%. Inventories, meantime, increased 0.6%. </p><p class="paywall">Core
capital goods shipments, a figure that will be used to calculate
investment in the government’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product
report, rose 0.3% in November.</p><p class="paywall">Orders for defense
capital goods, a volatile component, jumped 16%, while total durable
goods bookings minus military equipment rose 2%.</p><p class="paywall"> </p><p class="paywall"> </p><p> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-21459162571950883492021-12-23T07:52:00.002-07:002021-12-23T07:52:21.809-07:00Jobless Claims Remain Steady<div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>The number of
Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits was
unchanged last week at 205,000, the Labor Department reported on
Thursday.</p></div><div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>The
number was in line with estimates and compares to a revised 205,000
last week. The measure has trended near the 200,000 mark for a few weeks
as the labor market steadily improves.</p><div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>The four-week moving average ws 206,250, an increase of 2,750 from the prior period.</p></div><div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>The
health of the job market is one of the factors that prompted the
Federal Reserve last week to announce a further reduction in its
purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The Fed is now
buying $60-billion-per-month worth of assets, down 50% from what it
began buying when the coronavirus first struck the country in March of
2020.</p></div><div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank expects the
unemployment rate, now at 4.2%, to fall to 3.5% by the end of next
year, the record level it reached just prior to the onset of the
pandemic. Meanwhile, employers have 11 million job openings to be
filled.</p></div><div class="Raw-slyvem-0 bPNrMH" size="5"><p>“The
nation’s jobless rate, recently at 4.2%, is seen falling further over
the next year, as more Americans attain employment and others seek to
upgrade their compensation and/or lifestyles by switching jobs,”
Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick wrote ahead of the
report’s release.</p></div><p> </p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-28343227534239001762021-12-22T09:49:00.001-07:002021-12-22T09:49:14.399-07:00Existing home sales miss consensus, rising 1.9% in November<div class="group"><p>Sales of previously owned homes in November rose
1.9% from October to 6.46 million units, according to the National
Association of Realtors’ seasonally adjusted count. Sales were 2.0%
lower than November 2020.</p><p>These sales reflect home closings, so contracts that were likely signed in September and October.</p><span></span><p>Regionally,
month-to-month, sales in the Northeast were unchanged. In the Midwest,
they rose 0.7% and in the South they rose 2.9%. In the West, sales
increased 2.3%.</p><p>Sales likely increased due to a strengthening job
market and concerns among potential buyers that mortgage rates will be
significantly higher next year, according to the NAR’s chief economist
Lawrence Yun.</p><p>There were 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of
November, down 13% year over year. At the current sales pace that
represents a 2.1-month supply.</p><p>“New listings are coming on the
market, but they are being snatched up quickly,” said Yun, who added
that he expects to see a further decline in inventory in December.</p><p>That
tight supply continued to put upward pressure on home prices. The
median price of an existing home sold in November was $353,900. That is a
13.9% gain from November of 2020. Price gains are slowing from earlier
annual gains of about 20%.</p><span></span><p>Sales
were stronger in the more expensive categories, with homes priced
between $750,000 and $1 million rising 37% year over year and those
priced above $1 million rising 50%. Comparatively, homes priced between
$100,000 and $250,000 fell 19%. Supply is leanest on the lower end of
the market.</p><p>The market is also moving very quickly, with the average days a home stays on the market just 18 days.</p><p>The
share of sales to first-time buyers was just 26%, down from 32% in
November of 2020. The share of sales to investors was 15%, up from 14%
the year before.</p><p>Mortgage rates did not help buyers much either.
While rates are still low historically, the average rate on the popular
30-year fixed mortgage started September at 2.92% and ended October at
3.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That took away significant
purchasing power, especially for entry-level or first-time buyers.</p><p>“The
prospect of higher interest rates in 2022 is accelerating the decision
for buyers in an otherwise slower season,” said George Ratiu, senior
economist at Realtor.com. “However, the low number of homes for sale
remains the principal challenge, stumping both existing homeowners
looking for their next house and first-time buyers seeking a place to
call their own.”</p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-37311475015496617282021-12-22T08:08:00.000-07:002021-12-22T08:08:12.267-07:00CFNAI improves in November<p>November Chicago Fed National Activity <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index" target="_blank">Index</a>: +0.37 vs. +0.75 prior (unrevised).</p><p>Production-related indicators slowed in November.</p><p>Three of the four broad categories of
indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in
November, but all four categories deteriorated from October.</p><p>The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.37 in November from +0.25 in October</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-52995528986103539032021-12-22T08:04:00.005-07:002021-12-22T08:04:55.484-07:00Consumer Confidence Improved Again in December<p>Economic Expansion Likely to Continue into 2022, Despite Serious Headwinds</p><p>he Conference Board <a href="https://c212.net/c/link/?t=0&l=en&o=3397751-1&h=3985259034&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conference-board.org%2Fdata%2Fconsumerconfidence.cfm&a=Consumer+Confidence+Index" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><b><i>Consumer Confidence Index</i></b></a><b><i>®</i></b> increased
again in December, after an upward revision in November. The Index now
stands at 115.8 (1985=100), up from 111.9 (an upward revision) in
November. The<b><i> Present Situation Index</i></b>—based on consumers'
assessment of current business and labor market conditions—was
relatively flat at 144.1, down from 144.4 last month. The <b><i>Expectations Index</i></b>—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose to 96.9 from 90.2.
</p><p>"Consumer confidence improved further in December, following a very modest gain in November," said <b><span class="xn-person">Lynn Franco</span>, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board</b>.
"The Present Situation Index dipped slightly but remains very high,
suggesting the economy has maintained its momentum in the final month of
2021. Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting
the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of
consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and
vacations over the next six months all increased."</p>
<p>"Meanwhile, concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year
high last month as did concerns about COVID-19, despite reports of
continued price increases and the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Looking ahead to 2022, both confidence and consumer spending will
continue to face headwinds from rising prices and an expected winter
surge of the pandemic."</p>
<p><b>Present Situation <br class="dnr" /></b>Consumers' appraisal of current <b>business conditions</b> was more favorable in December.</p>
<ul><li>19.9% of consumers said business conditions were "good," up from 17.9%. </li><li>26.8% of consumers said business conditions were "bad," down from 27.3%.</li></ul>
<p>Consumers' assessment of the <b>labor market</b> was moderately less favorable. </p>
<ul><li>55.1% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," down from 55.5%; still a historically strong reading. </li><li>12.5% of consumers said jobs are "hard to get," up from 10.8%. </li></ul>
<p><b>Expectations Six Month Hence <br class="dnr" /></b>Consumers' optimism about the <b>short-term business conditions outlook</b> increased in December. </p>
<ul><li>26.7% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 25.6%. </li><li>17.9% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 19.6%.</li></ul>
<p>Consumers were also more optimistic about the <b>short-term labor market outlook</b>. </p>
<ul><li>25.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in the months ahead, up from 22.8%. </li><li>14.8% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 19.0%.</li></ul>
<p>Consumers were slightly less positive about their <b>short-term</b> <b>financial prospects.</b></p>
<ul><li>18.0% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 18.9%. </li><li>11.5% expect their incomes will decrease, down slightly from 11.7%.</li></ul>
<p> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-92065056588758603562021-12-22T08:03:00.005-07:002021-12-22T08:03:25.360-07:00Q3 GDP figure revised up to 2.3% from 2.1%<p>The U.S. economy
expanded at an annual 2.3% pace in the third quarter, up from the prior
estimate of 2.1%, according to updated data released by the Commerce
Department Wednesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had
forecast that third-quarter gross domestic product would remain
unrevised.</p> <p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}">Growth
in the first half of the year averaged a 6.5% annual rate. The economy
slowed in the third quarter as a result of the delta variant of the
coronavirus that causes COVI-19. </p> <p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}"> Consumer spending was revised to a gain of 2.0% annual rate in the
second quarter from the prior estimate of 1.7%. That was the slowest
since the depths of the pandemic in the same quarter of 2020.</p> <p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}">At the moment, economists are forecasting a pickup in growth in the
fourth quarter. Household spending is expected to pick up sharply. GDP
data for the fourth quarter won’t be released until the end of January. </p><p data-t="{"n":"blueLinks"}">The big unanswered question is how much the rapid spread of the omicron
variant will slow the economy in the final weeks of December and into
the first quarter. Answers remain illusive but economists are cautious,
noting that the U.S. has not done a stellar job eradicating the delta
variant.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-65420645759262405122021-12-22T08:01:00.002-07:002021-12-22T08:01:24.088-07:00Mortgage applications flat in the last week<p><strong>Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier,</strong>
according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly
Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 17, 2021.
</p><p>The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application
volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one
week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent
compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent
from the previous week and was 42 percent lower than the same week one
year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent
from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent
compared with the previous week and was 9 percent lower than the same
week one year ago. </p><p>The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 65.2 percent of
total applications from 63.3 percent the previous week. The
adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at
3.4 percent of total applications. </p>
<p>The FHA share of total applications remained unchanged to 9.6 percent
from 9.6 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications
increased to 11.5 percent from 10.6 percent the week prior. The USDA
share of total applications decreased to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent
the week prior. </p>
<p>The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages
with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.27
percent from 3.30 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from 0.39
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.</p>
<p>The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages
with jumbo loan balances (greater than $548,250) decreased to 3.31
percent from 3.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.27 from 0.30
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective
rate decreased from last week.</p>
<p>The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages
backed by the FHA decreased to 3.34 percent from 3.37 percent, with
points increasing to 0.36 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for
80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week. </p>
<p>The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages
increased to 2.59 percent from 2.58 percent, with points decreasing to
0.32 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.
The effective rate increased from last week. </p>
<p>The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.79
percent from 2.75 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.28
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective
rate increased from last week. <br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-35677740997928026802021-12-21T10:58:00.004-07:002021-12-21T10:58:29.094-07:00Q3 current account deficit widens by $16.5B<div class="lfI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;">Q3 <a href="https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-transactions" target="_blank">Current Account</a>:<strong>-$214.8B</strong> vs. -$204.8B consensus, -$198.3B previous (revised from -$190.3B).</div><div class="lfI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $16.5 billion, or 8.3 percent, to $214.8 billion in the third quarter of 2021.</div><div class="lfI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />The third-quarter deficit was 3.7 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.5 percent in the second quarter.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-6943101233941841632021-12-20T08:37:00.001-07:002021-12-20T08:37:28.167-07:00LEI for the U.S. Increased in November<p><b>The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® </b>(LEI) for
the U.S. increased by 1.1 percent in November to 119.9 (2016 = 100),
following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 0.3 percent increase
in September.
</p><p>"The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current
economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022," said
Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The
Conference Board. "Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as
well as a resurgence of COVID-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022.
Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained. The
Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to strengthen in Q4 2021 to
about 6.5 percent (annualized rate), before moderating to a still
healthy rate of 2.2 percent in Q1 2022."</p>
<p><b>The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®</b> (CEI) for the
U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in November to 106.7 (2016 = 100),
following a 0.5 percent increase in October and no change in September.</p>
<p><b>The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index®</b> (LAG) for the
U.S. decreased by 0.1 percent in November to 107.2 (2016 = 100),
following a 0.5 percent increase in October and a 0.9 percent increase
in September.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-43142363123310519062021-12-20T07:54:00.003-07:002021-12-20T07:54:24.744-07:00Week Ahead Watch List<p><span class="e2ma-style"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Sentiment readings headline the coming week with declines mostly
expected, no surprise given unfolding Covid risks not to mention the withdrawal
of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. GfK's consumer
climate report will be posted Tuesday as will the Eurozone's consumer
confidence flash followed on Wednesday by the US consumer confidence index
(this latter report has been moved up from the prior week). Business and
consumer confidence in Italy will be posted Thursday. Inflation data will open
on Thursday with the PCE price indexes (part of the US personal income and
outlays report) where no slowing is expected. And outright gains, though
limited, are expected for Japanese consumer prices on Friday. Canada will post
retail sales on Tuesday and monthly GDP on Thursday with US data to also
include durable goods orders, jobless claims, and new home sales all on
Thursday. Expectations for the US data are upbeat. US and UK GDP reports on
Wednesday will be revisions.</span></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-77687067209117552642021-12-16T10:40:00.003-07:002021-12-16T10:40:51.215-07:00Mortgage rates inch higher amid shift in monetary policy guidance<p> <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/">Freddie Mac</a> (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/index.html?intcmp=CWS-HP">Primary Mortgage Market Survey<sup>®</sup></a> (PMMS<sup>®</sup>), showing that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.12 percent.<br /> </p><p>“Mortgage rates inched up as a result of economic improvement and a shift in monetary policy guidance,” said <span class="person">Sam Khater</span>,
Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While house price growth is slowing,
prices remain high due to solid housing demand and low supply. We expect
rates to continue to increase into 2022 which may leave some potential
homebuyers with less room in their budgets on the sideline.”</p> <p>News Facts</p> <ul><li>
<a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html">30-year fixed-rate mortgage</a>
averaged 3.12 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending
December 16, 2021, up from last week when it averaged 3.10 percent. A
year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.67 percent.</li><li>
<a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html">15-year fixed-rate mortgage</a>
averaged 2.34 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week
when it averaged 2.38 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM
averaged 2.21 percent.</li><li>
<a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html">5-year Treasury (</a><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TSRMF?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link">TSRMF</a>)-indexed
hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.45 percent with an
average 0.3 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time,
the 5-year ARM averaged 2.79 percent.<br />
</li></ul> <p>The PMMS<sup>®</sup> is focused on conventional, conforming,
fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent
down and have excellent credit. Average commitment rates should be
reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront
cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following link for the <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/weightings/weightings_series_011.html?type=popup&height=600&width=700">Definitions</a>. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-55272991849853337912021-12-16T10:39:00.005-07:002021-12-16T10:39:47.351-07:00Kansas city fed composite index steady in December<div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;">December <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-growth-edged-higher/" target="_blank">Kansas City Fed Composite Index</a>: <strong>+24</strong> vs. prior +24 in November.</div><div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />Manufacturing Index<strong> +10 </strong>vs. +17 prior.</div><div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />“Regional
factory activity continued to grow modestly in December,” said
Wilkerson. “Materials price increases slowed slightly from a month ago,
and most firms expected to raise wages in 2022."</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-57995515916096916872021-12-16T10:38:00.006-07:002021-12-16T10:38:33.628-07:00December PMI Composite final print inches marginally lower M/M, comes in above consensus<p><a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f63974aa5288481688b386caf47905e1" target="_blank">December U.S. PMI Composite Index</a> (Final): 56.9 vs. 56.5 consensus and 57.2 prior.<br /></p><p>U.S. private sector businesses
indicated a strong upturn in output at 2021 end, despite the rate of
expansion easing to the slowest for three months.</p><p>Supporting the upturn in activity was a
quicker increase in December new orders, pace of expansion was the
sharpest for five months, and largely driven by a faster rise in service
sector new business.</p><p>Service Index: <strong>57.5</strong> vs. 58.5 consensus, 58 prior.</p><p>Business activity upturn remained sharp
despite slowing to a 3-month low as demand conditions strengthened at
the end of the year.</p><p>The pace of new business growth accelerated to the fastest for five months; Foreign client demand also rose.</p><p>Employment growth slowed to the softest for three months in December, as pressure on capacity remained substantial.</p><p>Backlogs of work rose at the third-fastest pace on record.</p><p>Output expectations for the year ahead
were the greatest for four months in December, amid hopes of smoother
supply flows in 2022.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-72044490052709942832021-12-16T10:36:00.003-07:002021-12-16T10:36:44.221-07:00Industrial production up 0.5% in November<div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm" target="_blank">November Industrial Production</a>: <strong>+0.5%</strong> M/M vs. +0.7% consensus and +1.7% prior (revised).</div><div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />Capacity Utilization <strong>76.8%</strong> in-line with consensus and 76.5% prior (revised).</div><div class="nlI" data-test-id="content-container" style="text-align: left;"><br />Manufacturing Output: <strong>+0.7% </strong>M/M in-line with consensus and +1.2% prior (unrevised).</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-10014135642690278422021-12-16T10:34:00.008-07:002021-12-16T10:34:56.603-07:00Philly fed outlook at 15.4, current prices received index narrows 13 points<p><span class="qiF bgB" data-test-id="post-author-nick"><span class="qiD"></span></span><a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-12" target="_blank">December Philly Fed Business Outlook</a>: <strong>15.4</strong> vs. +30 consensus, +39 prior (unrevised).</p><p>The
index dropped 24 points; nearly 27% of the firms reported increases in
current activity this month, while 11% reported decreases.The current shipments index decreased 17 points, to 15.3, in December.</p><p>The
prices paid index declined 14 points to 66.1. The percentage of firms
reporting increases in input prices (68%) far exceeded the percentage
reporting decreases (2%); 27% of the firms reported no change.The current prices received index fell 13 points to 50.4. </p><p>Nearly 51% of the
firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this
month, none reported decreases, and 49% reported no change.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-43971062141214655142021-12-16T08:30:00.004-07:002021-12-16T08:30:38.627-07:00Fed doubles pace of tapering, warms up to rate hikes in 2022 as inflationary pressures rise<p>The Federal Reserve announced that it would move more quickly to pare
back its pandemic-era easy money policies as Fed officials grow
concerned about the persistence of inflationary pressures.</p><p>On
Wednesday, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it
would double the pace by which it winds down its asset purchase program.</p><p>The FOMC also signaled a strong likelihood of an interest rate hike
next year, which would be the first since the central bank slashed
short-term borrowing costs to near-zero in March 2020.</p><p>Since the
depths of the pandemic, the Fed has added trillions of dollars in U.S.
Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to signal its support
for financing conditions. The Fed had set a course in November to
“taper” the pace of those aggregate purchases by $15 billion per month,
and will now double that pace — to $30 billion per month.</p><p>“In
light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor
market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net
asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion
for agency mortgage-backed securities,” the FOMC statement reads.</p><p>The
new pacing would bring all asset purchases to a full stop by March
2022, faster than the course set forth in November that originally
sought to end purchases by the middle of next year.</p><p>The decision was unanimously agreed to.</p><p>A
quicker taper would allow the Fed to move earlier — and perhaps more
aggressively — on interest rate hikes. All of the 18 members of the FOMC
said they could see the case for at least one rate hike next year, a
noticeable revision up from <a class="link rapid-noclick-resp yahoo-link" data-ylk="slk:September projections showing a 50-50 split on a 2022 rate hike;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;" href="https://news.yahoo.com/fed-fomc-monetary-policy-decision-september-2021-141145429.html">September projections showing a 50-50 split on a 2022 rate hike</a>.</p><p>The
updated dot plots, which map out each of the FOMC members’ projections
for where rates will be in coming years, shows the median member of the
committee projecting three rate hikes next year, another three in 2023,
and another two in 2024.</p><p> </p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-23531550307811405962021-12-16T08:27:00.002-07:002021-12-16T08:27:25.434-07:00Jobless claims: Another 206,000 individuals filed new claims, rising from 52-year low<p>First-time unemployment filings fell sharply to reach their lowest level since 1969 in early December, <a class="link rapid-noclick-resp yahoo-link" data-ylk="slk:coming in below 190,000.;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;" href="https://finance.yahoo.com/weekly-unemployment-claims-week-ended-dec-4-2021-192034644.html">coming in below 190,000.</a>
And even with the latest move higher, the four-week moving average for
new claims — which smooths out volatility in the weekly data – came in
at the lowest level since November 1969, dropping by 16,000
week-over-week to reach 203,750. </p><p>And continuing claims, while
still somewhat above pre-pandemic levels, have also come down sharply
from their pandemic-era high. This metric tracking the total number of
individuals claiming benefits across regular state programs peaked at
more than 23 million in May 2020, but came in below 2 million for a
third straight week in this week’s report and reached the lowest level
since March 2020. </p><p>The marked drop in new weekly jobless claims over the course of 2021 —
and especially in the past several weeks — has served as one key
indicator of the current tightness in the labor market. </p><p>But even
as the rate of those newly unemployed per week sank to multi-decade
lows, labor force participation has remained depressed compared to
pre-virus levels, and job openings have held near record highs. The
labor force participation rate last came in at 61.8% for November, or
short of February 2020’s 63.3%, and the size of the civilian labor force
was still down by 2.4 million.</p><p>“If we filled every single job
opening that's out there right now, we'd have employment that was not
just well above where we were pre-pandemic, but well above what anyone
predicted pre-pandemic,” Betsey Stevenson, former Labor Department chief
economist and professor of economics and public policy at the
University of Michigan, told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p>“That recovery
and employers wanting to hire workers is there,” she added. “The
challenge is that we still have just a lot of uncertainty going on in
the labor market. A lot of what economists talk about is churn — people
who are exiting jobs more frequently than they used to, exiting the
labor market more frequently than they used to.”</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-51688597006779901012021-12-15T08:34:00.003-07:002021-12-15T08:34:28.197-07:00Business Inflation Expectations increase slightly to 3.4%<p>
<a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx" target="_blank">December Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations:</a> <strong>+3.4%</strong> vs. +3.3% in November.</p><p>
<strong>Inflation expectations:</strong> Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations increased slightly to 3.4%, on average.</p><p>
<strong>Current economic environment:</strong> Sales levels "compared to
normal" decreased over the month, and profit margins remained
unchanged. Year-over-year unit cost growth was also unchanged at 3.6%,
on average.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-62051524600057458772021-12-15T08:32:00.004-07:002021-12-15T08:32:44.082-07:00Homebuilder confidence ticks up in December, in line with consensus <div class="group"><p>Surprisingly strong housing demand, even in the
usually slower season for housing, has homebuilders feeling increasingly
confident.</p><p>Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market
rose one point to 84 in December, on the National Association of Home
Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, or HMI. That is the fourth
consecutive increase and ties with February for the highest level of the
year. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment.</p><span></span><p>The
increase comes despite concerns over inflation, supply-chain
disruptions and an ongoing labor shortage. Prices for wallboard, steel,
aluminum and plastic construction products rose sharply in November,
according to the producer price index.</p><p>“While demand remains
strong, finding workers, predicting pricing and dealing with material
delays” remain challenging, said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke, a
homebuilder from Tampa, Florida.</p><p>Builders continue to benefit from
the incredibly lean supply of existing homes for sale. They’re also
seeing high demand from investors, as the build-for-rent sector
continues to gain steam. The number of single-family built-for-rent
construction starts reached its highest quarterly volume on record
during the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>There are hurdles ahead,
especially given how high prices have jumped recently. The cost of a
newly built home jumped 17.5% year over year in October, according to
the U.S. Census. Mortgage rates are also expected to rise markedly as
the Federal Reserve eases its support for mortgage-backed bonds to
contend with surging inflation.</p><p>“While 2021 single-family starts
are expected to end the year 24% higher than the pre-Covid 2019 level,
we expect higher interest rates in 2022 will put a damper on housing
affordability,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz.</p><span></span><p>Of
the HMI’s three components, current sales conditions rose one point to
90, and buyer traffic also rose one point to 70. Sales expectations in
the next six months was unchanged for the third consecutive month at 84.</p><p>Looking
at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the
Northeast rose 4 points to 74, the Midwest increased 2 points to 74 and
the South and West each posted a three-point gain to 87, respectively.</p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-17584498224380083662021-12-15T08:30:00.001-07:002021-12-15T08:30:18.350-07:00Business inventories squeak past estimate<p>U.S.
business inventory accumulation increased strongly in October,
suggesting that restocking could again support economic growth this
quarter even as motor vehicle inventories remain depressed because of
shortages.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-1">Business
inventories rose 1.2% after gaining 0.8% in September, the Commerce
Department said on Wednesday. Inventories are a key component of gross
domestic product.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-2">Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast inventories rising 1.1%. Inventories
increased 7.8% on a year-on-year basis in October. Retail inventories
edged up 0.1% in October as estimated in an advance report published
last month. That followed a 0.1% dip in September. Motor vehicle
inventories decreased 1.0% instead of 0.7% as estimated last month.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-3">Retail
inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP,
increased 0.5%, rather than 0.4% as estimated last month.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-4">A
moderate pace of inventory drawdown in the third quarter accounted for
all of the 2.1% annualized rise in GDP last quarter. Inventories were
depleted in the first half of the year, and COVID-19 pandemic-related
shortages are making it difficult to rebuild stocks.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-5">The urgent need to restock is keeping manufacturing humming and supporting the overall economy.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-6">"Inventory-to-sales
ratios have collapsed throughout the pandemic," said Jonathan Golub,
chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse Securities USA in New
York. "While supply constraints have contributed to these declines,
robust sales is the primary culprit. Inadequate inventories, and the
need to replenish them, should support robust nominal GDP in 2022."</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-7">There
are concerns from some economists that businesses wary of delays
getting stock could over-order and end up with excess inventory, which
could put the economic expansion in jeopardy.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-8">Wholesale inventories rose 2.3% in October. Stocks at manufacturers increased 0.8%.</p><p class="Text__text___3eVx1j Text__dark-grey___AS2I_p Text__regular___Bh17t- Text__large___1i0u1F Body__base___25kqPt Body__large_body___3g04wK ArticleBody__element___3UrnEs" data-testid="paragraph-9">Business
sales advanced 2.1% in October after rising 1.2% in September. At
October's sales pace, it would take 1.24 months for businesses to clear
shelves, down from 1.26 months in September.</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-72900743074735955002021-12-15T07:58:00.004-07:002021-12-15T07:58:43.854-07:00Retail sales growth slowed in November<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Retail sales rose slower than
economists had expected in November following three straight months of
sharp increases, according to data released Wednesday by the Census
Bureau.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. retailers and
restaurants made $639.8 billion in sales last month, up just 0.3 percent
from October and well below the 0.8 percent increase projected by
analysts. October’s retail sales gain was revised up to 1.8 percent, a
0.1 percentage point increase from the initially reported figure.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Retail
sales have risen steadily throughout the second half of the year
despite deep supply chain disruptions and the highest annual inflation
rate in more than 30 years. While growth continued through November, the
pace of consumer spending slowed considerably in key sectors.</span></p><div class="dfp-tag-wrapper wrapper" id="dfp-ad-incontent_desk_1-wrapper"><div class="dfp-tag-wrapper" id="dfp-ad-incontent_desk_1"><span></span></div></div><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sales
at department stores sank 5.4 percent last month and purchases at
electronics stores fell by 4.6 percent, the Census Bureau reported.
Sales by online retailers were flat, though sporting goods, hobby, music
and book stores saw sales rise by 1.3 percent.</span></p><p>While a
retail sales slowdown during the holiday shopping season would typically
be cause for alarm, November’s tepid growth followed three straight
months of expectations-beating increases. </p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Retailers
and supply chain experts urged consumers to buy their holiday gifts
early to ensure they could check off their lists before Christmas. Those
warnings may have pulled sales that would have occurred in November
forward into October or September.</span></p><p>“I see this more as a
sign that Americans started their holiday shopping early, as opposed to
bad news for retailers,” wrote Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at
CreditCards.com, in an analysis.</p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Even
though November 2021 sales were only up 0.3% from October 2021, they
were up 18.2% from November 2020. That year-over-year comparison is more
significant, and it illustrates robust expansion.”</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Steady price growth could also be weighing on consumer spending.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Consumer
prices rose 0.8 percent last month and 6.8 percent in the 12 months
leading into November, according to the Labor Department’s consumer
price index (CPI), the fastest annual inflation rate since 1982. The
intense demand for products in short supply, which fueled much of the
year’s inflation, could be fading as prices climb.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Those
year-over-year comparisons are most noteworthy, especially given the
tough competition from October. But we are seeing some signs that
inflation and supply chain woes may have held November sales back a bit,
and those issues didn’t show up as much in October,” Rossman wrote.</span></p><p><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1842974319375699261.post-20812008904587835072021-12-15T07:56:00.005-07:002021-12-15T07:56:55.528-07:00Import prices climb again and add to high U.S. inflation <p>The cost of imported goods increased sharply in November, contributing to the highest rate of U.S. inflation in almost 40 years. </p><p>The U.S. import price index jumped 0.7% last month, <a class="icon none" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">the government said Wednesday</a>. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% advance. </p>
<p>Over the past year import prices has climbed 11.7%. The last time they rose that fast before the pandemic was in 2011.</p> <p>Import prices minus oil rose 0.5%.</p> <p>The cost of imported fuel, autos, consumer goods and industrial supplies rose in November. </p> <p>Those increases offset lower prices for food and drinks. </p><div class="j-ad" id="ad-inline-video">
</div> <p>U.S. export prices rose 1% in November. They are up 18.2% in the past year.</p> <p>The cost of most goods and services have surged this year to drive <a class="icon none" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-consumer-price-index-for-november-11639142278?mod=economic-report&mod=article_inline" rel="follow">inflation to the highest level since the early 1980s,</a> when the U.S. last experienced a bout of soaring prices. </p> <p>Major shortages of labor and supplies tied to the pandemic are the main culprits.</p> <p>The
Federal Reserve is betting that inflation will slow sharply toward the
end of 2022 as the shortages ease, but the central bank is worried
enough that it’s <a class="icon none" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-has-to-start-hiking-rates-steadily-early-next-year-to-combat-inflation-former-official-says-11639493506?mod=home-page&mod=article_inline" rel="follow">speeding up plans to phase out stimulus for the economy.</a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0