First Time Jobless Claims Fall 12K

Initial jobless claims are pointing to steady strength on the unemployment side of the labor market and should support expectations for intrend strength for the November employment report. Initial claims fell 12,000 in the November 21 week to a lower-than-expected 260,000 level that is near 42-year lows. The 4-week average, however, is not pointing to outright improvement, unchanged at a 271,000 level that is trending more than 10,000 above the month-ago comparison.

And continuing claims are backing up, at least in lagging data for the November 14 week. At 2.207 million, continuing claims rose 34,000 which is the largest gain since mid-July. And the 4-week average is up 15,000 to a 2.182 million level that is also trending about 10,000 above the month-ago comparison. But in a reminder that levels remain very healthy, the unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.6 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report which, against the outsized strength of the 271,000 nonfarm payroll gain and 5.0 percent unemployment rate in the October employment report, doesn't point to the same level of strength but does point to a respectable November employment report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims have been trending at 42-year lows and, as a share of the whole labor market, are likely at record lows. Econoday forecasters see initial claims holding steady in the November 14 week, up only 1,000 to a very low 270,000. Continuing claims have also been at record lows.